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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Spending time in the critical presidential election state of Florida this week, I thought a lot about what Florida and other states did during the 2018 midterm elections, that might give us some hints as to what will happen in those key states in 2020.Brinley Co Womens Faux Leather High-Top Lace-up Laser-Cut Sneakers B073RRZNYR 9 B(M) US|Mint Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“A Florida Frost?” – New Balance Women's Fresh Foam Crush V1 Cross Trainer B075R7NV4R 9 W US|Blue Senate seat long held by former Sen. Bill Nelson (D) Florida. Florida is always so close I’d rate it a toss-up, but I say a slight advantage for Trump in 2020.

“Penn Station Stall” – Right now I would rate Pennsylvania as the best and biggest chance for a Democrat pick up in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 with 48.2 percent of the vote to 47.5 percent for Hillary Clinton. Aquatalia Women's Fire Perforated Suede Ankle Boot B071KCPNTQ 8.5 M M US|BlackThe raw margin of victory was just 44,000 votes. Bernie Mev Women's Demure Flat B01NBOKHXE 36 EU/5.5-6 M US|Floral Breeze. I predict Pennsylvania leans strongly to go back into the Democrat’s fold in 2020, and if native son Joe Biden is the nominee, he’ll carry the state over Trump in November.

“Ohio High-Low” – Ohio and its 18 Electoral College votes went to Donald Trump in 2016. It’s a state that is the best predictor of all fifty states. Win Ohio and you’re president. The 2018 election produced mixed results. Call it the status quo election. Sen.Easy Spirit Women's Romy Walking Shoe B000F5THFE 6.5 N|White Multi Leather Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio easily won reelection. On the other hand, Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) Ohio was elected governor, replacing term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio. Democrats and Republicans both kept their incumbent seats in the U.S. House and so that balance stays the same. I rate Ohio as clear advantage for Republicans in 2020.

“Badgering Voters” – Stuart Weitzman Women's Toga Ballet Flat B074YS99KY 6.5 B(M) US|Black Arizona. Scott Walker (R) Wisconsin, was defeated in a very close race as he sought a third term. But none of Wisconsin’s U.S. House district flipped, so I say Wisconsin leans to Trump in 2020

“Carolina (North) on My Mind” – North Carolina has become a key toss-up state in past few presidential election cycles, after being a solid red state for decades. But 2018 offered some mixed results. Democrats won the governor’s race beating a Republican incumbent. On the other hand, Demonia Women's Creeper 306 Vegan Leather Platform Wedges B017U9YCKM 7 B(M) US|Black VeganDemocrats and Republicans each held their incumbent U.S. House seats, with one exception. The ninth district seat remains in a toss-up with a special election set for September 2019, which will get huge national press attention and money. Many will view it as a final litmus test on Trump’s viability in North Carolina and nationally in 2020. Right now, I give the GOP a slight advantage to hold North Carolina, but remember Trump only beat Hillary Clinton here by three percentage points.

“Virginia is NOT for All Lovers!” –The sea of “red” hearts in Virginia has indeed turned “blue.” Between 1952 and 2004, SAS Women's Classic Slip on B00AH18H0W 6.5 M (M) (B) US|Mocha, and in 2018 came within one vote of tying Republicans for control of the House of Delegates, and within one vote of controlling the State Senate. Look for Virginia to stay in the “blue” column in 2020.

“’Auto State’ is Not Automatic” – Heavily involved in the auto industry, Michigan has been a reliable blue-collar Democratic state for decades, but often with a penchant for electing Republican governors. This was the closest margin of victory in any state for Donald Trump as he garnered 47.5 percent of the vote,New Balance Women's Cruz V2 Fresh Foam Running Shoe B07B71ZJ3Y 12 B(M) US|Seed/Light Cliff Grey/Sea SaltApex Women's Comfort B001HOYC3O 6 B(M) US|Grey to 47.27 percent for Hillary Clinton. The difference was just 10,704 votes out of 4.5 million votes cast. Democrats kept a U.S. Senate seat, picked up the Governor’s mansion and flipped two U.S. House seats. I rate the state as leaning to flip back to the Democratic side in 2020.

“Why All of This Matters” – Nevados Women's Boomerang II Low V4088W Hiking Boot B00995H13G 6.5 B(M) US|Dark Brown/Black/Light Purple, North Carolina, Ohio, or Georgia. It’s going to be an uphill fight!.

Who is ahead in your state? Who are people chatting about? Just click the comment button to add your voice to the chorus!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations that are providing coverage of the 2020 presidential campaign in West Virginia, its five neighboring states of Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and most of the Washington, D.C. media market.

© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC

Photo courtesy: Getty Images

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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – This week I am in the crucial “Sunshine State” which will play a critical role in who wins the White House in 2020. For months I have predicted that House Democrats would begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump whether there was merit or not. I think the momentum is now gaining in that direction and has lots of implications. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

“Mueller Moves On” – Altra AFW1755F Women's Lone Peak 3.5 Shoes B01N4SJS44 8 B(M) US|Purple/Orange. That means impeachment is the option available to Congress.

“Good Cop – Bad Cop” – While many rank and file Democrats have called for impeachment of the president in recent weeks, Mizuno Women's Wave Sky Running-Shoes B01N0O1FXP 10 B(M) US|Tile Blue/Silver/Safety Yellow, so she may be trying to be the “good cop” here. But I predict if the majority of her caucus serves up the “bad cop” role, she’ll allow impeachment inquiries to move forward.

“The Math Doesn’t Add Up” – Right now Democrats control the U.S House with 235 seats, NIKE Air Max 2017 Women's Running Sneaker B07BWGWF4Y 8.5 B(M) US|Tea Berry Port Wine Wolf Grey 601. Even in 1999, Republicans had a 55-45 majority in the Senate, but needed 12 Democrats to expel Clinton. They got zero Democrats to join them.

“Impeach me, Please!” – Speaker Pelosi has warned Democrats that she believes Trump actually wants his foes to launch an impeachment. Pelosi told her caucus that President Trump “wants to be impeached” so that he can be cleared by the Senate. I think she’s right on the money. I mean, just look how the Mueller investigation emboldened Trump supporters and made them even more passionate in their backing. Trump seems to be inviting his own “Trojan Horse” to the impeachment process. Fascinating!

“The Potential ‘Coattail’ Fallout” – I think there is an interesting dynamic to watch here that concerns the timing of everything. In January 1998, Republicans launched their investigation of President Clinton over his involvement with Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky.CLARKS Women's Medora Grace Boot B0196XI12K 12 B(M) US|Gunsmoke It was also the beginning of the 1998 midterm Congressional election cycle. If the Trump impeachment process starts now and goes a year, we may have resolution well before the 2020 presidential election (and Congressional elections, too). In 1998, Democrats won a net gain of five seats in the House, plus Newt Gingrich was ousted as Speaker. CLARKS Leisa Lakia Women's Sandal B0788QYTSL 9.5 W US|NavyIt was a clear sign Republicans overplayed their hands on impeachment. But there was no change in the Senate’s 55-45 GOP majority.

“Home Party Rules” – Remember that impeachment is a political process, it’s not a legal process like the criminal courts. Party loyalty can play a huge factor in a political process. For example, in 1999 only five House Democrats voted to impeach President Clinton, but in the Senate no Democrats voted to remove him from office.Drew Womens Ariana B01J6KN66O 7 D US|Dusty Gold Saucony Women's Freedom ISO Running Shoe B01NBNBHAJ 11.5 B(M) US|Berry | WhiteOn the other hand, go back to the 1974 impeachment proceedings against President Nixon. Seven Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted to file three articles of impeachment against Nixon. After that, a group of Republican lawmakers visited the White House and told Nixon he could not survive and would be removed from office if he did not resign.Keds Women's Champion Original Canvas Sneaker B07FXSBN93 9 M US|White CanvasNew Balance Women's Coast V4 FuelCore Running Shoe B0771CKX6H 7.5 B(M) US|Conch ShellTwo days later he quit. My point is, when your own party says it is time to close the curtain, then you are done. It really makes little difference what the opposing party says.

“Unity and Division” – The only other example we can study on impeachment is that of President Andrew Johnson, who succeeded President Lincoln after his assassination. Lincoln, a Republican, chose a Southern Democrat in Johnson of Tennessee, The North Face Bridgeton Tall Boot Women's B0195KIPAC 9 B(M) US|Dachshund Brown/Coffee Bean Brown (Prior Season)Vans Unisex Authentic Canvas Shoes B076CV8H8M 9.5 M US Women / 8 M US Men|Blue/True White Two Tonefor what was dubbed a National Unity Ticket. When Johnson replaced Lincoln, many Republicans did not trust him or want him. As mentioned earlier, impeachment is a political process, Carlos by Carlos Santana Women's Sawyer Fashion Boot B06XJ9M1W6 7.5 M M US|Dark Brownnot a legal proceeding. Johnson was impeached on three articles, and in all three cases he survived removal from office by only one vote in the Senate. Interestingly, after Johnson left the presidency, he ran for U.S. Senate and won!

“Why All This Matters” – When it comes to impeachment, Congress has to tread carefully. In Richard Nixon’s case, the evidence was overwhelming and enough people in both parties were ready to remove him from office. In Bill Clinton’s case, it was clear he committed perjury by lying under oath to a U.S. District Judge. Merrell Women's Chateau Tall Lace Polar Waterproof Snow Boot B01MXYPHIY 6.5 B(M) US|BlackOf course, the lie was about an extramarital affair, and as reprehensible as many in both parties found Clinton’s behavior, many just didn’t feel it warranted removal from office. In Andrew Johnson’s case, he may have violated laws Congress specifically passed to bait him. But again,OluKai Kulapa Kai B00AW3BIBA 7 B(M) US|Dark Java/Dark Java Teva Women's Verra Sandal B07CPPKZXV 37 M EU|Surf Black/Multiit was more of a political offense. My guess is that until House Democrats find clear violations of the law or breeches of national security, the Trump impeachment is going nowhere.

Do you favor or oppose impeachment of President Trump? Please click the comment button to place your vote and explain your position!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia and its five surrounding states, plus most of the Washington, D.C. media market. He’s a National Contributing Writer for the White House Patch at www.Patch.com.

© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC

Photo courtesy: Mark Curtis Media, LLC

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